FARGO The first spring and summer prediction for North Dakota by the National Weather Service for 2025 is out, and it shows that drought conditions and the risk of fires could get worse across the state.
The National Weather Service said in a video on March 25 that the lack of winter snow and the coming trend toward warmer, drier weather will both play a part.
NWS hydrologist Allen Schlag said, “Unfortunately, the outlook is not good for the future.”
Meteorologist Megan Jones said that the amount of snowfall in Grand Forks is about 15 inches less than usual. In Fargo and Bismarck, the amount of snowfall is between 20 and 30 inches less than usual.
“We really have had no snowpack for a while now … certainly a pretty significant deficit for this point in the winter season,” she added.
Jones also said that in North Dakota, the weather starts to trend toward below-normal precipitation in May, June, and July, while temperatures start to trend above-normal in June, July, and August.
47% of the time, summer rainfall will be less than normal. 33% of the time, it will be about normal, and 20% of the time, it will be above normal.
“Percentage-wise, it’s not that strong, but for forecasters to paint such a large area for below-normal precipitation at this lead time is certainly concerning,” said Jones.
She said that one reason the National Weather Service put out the information was so that people could start getting ready.
Most of North Dakota’s soils are still dry to very dry, according to Schlag. A lot of the western and southern parts of the state are still in a drought.
He said that parts of the state that are already experiencing drought will likely get worse in the next few weeks.
“People who like days with lots of sunshine and warmth will be very happy.” “People like me who depend on rain to make a living, especially in the farming business, might not be as happy,” Schlag said.
Since there isn’t much snow left, plants that grew last year will stay upright and dry out quickly when it gets warm and windy.
Fire season could start earlier than usual this summer and fall because of the weather.
“Fires will be a little easier to start, and once they do start, they may be a little more difficult to control,” he added.
This fall,
Parts of western North Dakota were hit by flames for weeks because it was warm, windy, and dry.
Two people were killed, hundreds of animals were killed, and thousands of acres were burned.
There is still a statewide fire emergency in North Dakota,
on March 10 by Gov. Kelly Armstrong.
Armstrong signed an order that lets local and tribal governments use state resources to fight fires until May 31, when the order runs out.
Schlag said that the fact that North Dakota is much less likely to experience broad spring flooding this year is a good sign for the future.
He said that the only places with a good amount of snow-water equivalent are the high parts of the Pembina and Souris river basins.
